Financial Costs of an AI Pause?

I’ve analyzed the near-term economic effects of an AI pause, out of concern for my investments, and a desire to predict how strong political opposition to a pause is likely to be. My median estimates: The S&P 500 will drop 27.8%. AI subsectors will drop 34-69%. Interest rates will rise at a much slower rate than would be the case without a pause. The specific numbers depend on some fairly arbitrary assumptions. So please read this post in order to get a feel for how the results depend on the assumptions. I’ve tried to keep the assumptions reasonable, but some of them will prove to be wrong.