Probabilities are not the right concept

Introduction This sequence is an attempt to sketch a unified framework for several interconnected questions: Where do Bayesian priors come from? What even are probabilities? How should we deal with infinite ethics? What's going on with anthropics? I hope to lay out both some of the existing answers and my own preferred synthesis. [1] I understand that many people have already thought about these questions, and I have only read portions of the existing literature. I think most of what I will write here, even in the section about my preferred synthesis, is not novel...