AI RESEARCH
Can AI Weather Models Predict Beyond Two Weeks? A Quantitative Benchmark and Analysis of Long Rollouts
arXiv CS.LG
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ArXi:2605.30184v1 Announce Type: new While AI weather models excel at short-to-medium range forecasts (up to 15 days), they frequently suffer from ill-defined "instabilities" when rolled out over longer horizons. This work addresses the lack of a formal taxonomy by categorizing these failures into three distinct regimes: blow-up, drift, and loss of seasonality, through year-long rollouts of nine state-of-the-art AI weather models.