Probabilistic bias adjustment of seasonal forecasts using generative machine learning: A case study of Arctic sea ice predictions

ArXi:2605.29172v1 Announce Type: new Seasonal climate predictions planning and risk management by offering early information of the most likely-to-occur climate conditions in the coming months, and associated uncertainties. Ensemble forecasts enable this by simulating many plausible outcomes, allowing predictions to be expressed as usable probabilities. Large ensembles and high-resolution forecasts strengthen this guidance by better sampling uncertainty and capturing finer-scale processes but come with significant computational cost.