AI RESEARCH
The Need for an External Observer Formalizing the Sufficiency Gap: A Mathematical Extension of Mixture Identifiability and Contextual Grounding in Sequence Models
arXiv CS.LG
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ArXi:2605.26711v1 Announce Type: cross We construct a binary mixed-regime process with one deterministic textual regime and one random regime governed by an unobserved latent state. Even an ideal infinite-capacity sequence predictor that exactly recovers the text-only marginal law can become overconfident when the observed prefix is compatible with the wrong latent regime. The resulting entropy difference is not an ordinary optimization error; it is a sufficiency gap caused by marginalization over an unobserved state.