EconCausal: A Context-Aware Economic Reasoning Benchmark for Large Language Models

ArXi:2510.07231v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Socio-economic causal effects depend heavily on their institutional and environmental contexts. The same intervention can produce different, even opposite, effects across regulatory regimes, market conditions, time periods, or populations. This poses a challenge for large language models (LLMs) in decision- roles: can they infer the direction of a causal effect under a specified context, and revise that judgment when the context changes? To address this, we Across models, LLMs often fail to condition their predictions on context.