Aurora Hunter: A Two-Stage Framework for Probabilistic Visibility Forecasting

ArXi:2605.24038v1 Announce Type: cross Forecasting aurora borealis visibility matters for space weather research and aurora tourism. Visibility at a site and night depends on two distinct factors: (1) whether aurora is physically occurring, driven by solar wind-magnetosphere coupling, and (2) whether observing conditions allow naked-eye detection, mainly cloud cover and lunar illumination. We present Aurora Hunter, a two-stage cascade that decouples these factors.