AI RESEARCH
Decomposing Ensemble Spread in Lorenz '96 With Learned Stochastic Parameterizations
arXiv CS.LG
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ArXi:2605.22242v1 Announce Type: new Weather and climate forecasts are inherently uncertain due to chaotic dynamics, imperfect initial conditions, and incomplete representation of the underlying physical processes. Operational ensemble forecasts aim to represent these uncertainties through forecast spread, yet many approaches yield underdispersive estimates, with spread that grows too slowly relative to forecast error.