Convergence Point Theory: Why LLM uncertainty is determined by the topic, not the model

r/artificial
Generative AI AI Safety AI Research

Existing research on LLM response uncertainty has been looking in different directions. Hallucination, knowledge conflict, RLHF limitations, prompt sensitivity, calibration failure - these have all been studied separately, and I kept wondering why no one had tried to unify them under a single principle. I ran experiments on the hypothesis that the common cause of these phenomena lies not inside the model or in the prompt, but in an attribute inherent to the topic itself. A Convergence Point is the consensus density of knowledge humanity has accumulated on a given topic.