Notes from the Trough: a developer's guide to post-hype AI

I want to make a prediction that sounds pessimistic and is actually the opposite: the most exciting decade of AI starts after the hype dies, and the hype is dying right now. This isn't a hot take anymore, it's the consensus reading of the data. By spring 2026 the analysts who track these things put generative AI squarely in what Gartner calls the trough of disillusionment - the part of the cycle where reality finishes mugging the marketing. The widely-cited number is that around 95% of enterprise GenAI pilots never made it to production.