Pre-IPO Betting Boom Hits Prediction Markets

The Information
Generative AI

Most everyday investors can’t buy shares of hot private companies like SpaceX and OpenAI before they go public. With potential mega-IPOs looming this year, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are turning that hype into tradable bets. Users are flocking to yes-or-no bets on milestones like valuations and IPO timelines, betting with contracts that trade in cents and pay out $1 if the buyer is right. That’s helping prediction markets tap into excitement around the IPOs and reduce their reliance on sports betting, which represents much of their business.